The Challenge
A pharmaceutical company needed to forecast the launch of an upcoming oncology drug but faced the challenge of relying on clinical trial data for persistency and compliance metrics, which often did not reflect real-world scenarios.
ProcDNA's Solution
Data Collection and Analysis
Collected 12 months of patient claims data and assessed the gap between consecutive claims, comparing it to a threshold (grace period) to determine persistency.
Persistency and Compliance Estimation
Calculated persistency as the percentage of patients continuing therapy after a specific period, while compliance was measured by tracking the percentage of days a patient adhered to their prescribed dosage.
Impact
Enhanced Sales Forecasting Accuracy
Improved forecast accuracy by up to 20%, supporting better strategic decisions.
Re-evaluated Lifetime Value (LTV)
Enabled the client to re-evaluate LTV using real-world persistency and compliance data, resulting in more informed business decisions.
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